Betting psychology – Bandwagon Effect

This effect has its roots in the field of cognitive psychology. If you regularly read our articles focusing on psychology (based on Sundays), surely they realize that there are many psychological aspects that would punters should be careful.

Success is based critical thinking, thorough analysis and good judgment. Sorry but there are many states of mind, which is due to the decisions of the human subconscious negatively affected.

What is the effect bandwagon?

This phenomenon is based on human nature. Generally, because we try not to enter into conflict (especially against the majority). Due to this phenomenon are reporting success should be a variety of diets. When the market comes a new diet, gradually people jump on the bandwagon (due to “great reviews”) .. until the bubble bursts.

For receiving general views can right part of the human brain. The left part of the brain evaluates the facts, while the right part, are centers that tend to popular perceptions. We’re not saying that one must distinguish at all and constantly build up opposition, however, climb on the bandwagon or “join the herd” is certainly not always appropriate – it is certainly not appropriate, for example in the betting.

Relationship bandwagon effect betting

How many times you’ve done a thorough analysis of the pre-game that makes you come to a conclusion? And how many times did you then look at some betting forum where a lot of people betting on the opposite of what you come you? Perhaps this happened to you many times. And if you have a cool head and you’re not my analysis 100% sure enough it might cause you to change your opinion = you jumped on the bandwagon. Hours left brain activities were dented five minutes scanning of information through the right part of the brain.

Sometimes, although it is possible that you made a mistake or something you had information that these punters should, however if you have done a thorough pre-game analysis, you should not be too similar scenario znejistět. People tend to flock to form – just that a man had lost that bet on a team and others will be added, creating a snowball effect.

Of course you should evaluate the reasons for such bookies tip, but you should not lose confidence in their analysis.

And it is even worse …

This phenomenon is further enhanced in the event that it is an important match – for example the Champions League final, Superbowl, a world championship and so on. Such events are closely watched by the media, so that every step you encounter opinions of experts (who are not always so great professionals) and various analyzes. Opinions and analysis can serve as a source of some interesting information, but certainly you should not be taken as dogma. Collect as much objective information and perform your own analysis.

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Betting psychology – Empathic gap

This concept is based on the belief that our perception is dependent on the state in which we find ourselves. Either we act with a cool head … or (in the worst case) with a hot head. This means that when we make decisions, has it affected our anger, joy and feelings – these are sometimes so strong that the outcome of the decision-making process literally dictate. The problem is that it usually realize. A state in which we find ourselves, make it difficult (sometimes even impossible) to imagine that a person may feel differently than they feel at any given moment.

Empathic gap betting

This article will focus on the effect of empathic divide in sports betting. This phenomenon is common among poker players. Someone who suffers a bad beat and lose a big pot often left to control emotions (anger and frustration), which causes him to be in other handachi play stupid. This will result in even greater losses and that player is then usually gets on tilt.

Do tilt i often get punters. Example, if you worked hard remembered their analyzes Premier League, but in the day you balance bets 0-4, you start to tilt. This is particularly true in the event that you lose due to a stroke of luck or some other factor (eg. The referee who overlooked a foul in the penalty area).

Do you head starts to feel injustice. You become frustrated and say you lost the money you need whatever it takes to earn it back. The result may be, for example, that you begin to guess the results of matches in the sports / leagues that do not know at all. Such behavior is bring one – even greater loss.

A similar scenario is threatening you, even if you bet under the influence of alcohol (or worse – under the influence of drugs). These substances further enhanced mood person, so your thinking is even less rational than before ingesting the substance. One evening so can ruin months of effort.

Suppose you had a fight with his wife. He scolds weeks because the kitchen is cracked waste. Given that a 45-minute football match starts (and you do not have wagered), take the tape and “conjure up” a temporary solution … sweaty and angry then sit down to the computer, you will join the sportsbook and create a ticket.

Do you think you make a good decision? It is true that some people are mentally strong enough to make the above-mentioned events had no effect, however, the majority of the population will be affected by anger, which will have a negative impact on their thought process. Precisely for this reason, you should bet only when you are emotionally balanced.

To make matters worse …

We already know that people in situations where they are emotionally unbalance, make bad decisions sportsbook. This is unfortunately not everything. This bad betting decisions is often followed by an even worse decision. Example, if you bet on Chelsea winning the match against Arsenal in the 90th minute the score of 2-1 for Chelsea and Arsenal in extra time gives a goal from penalty, it is quite likely that sucks, stop thinking rationally and you want as quickly as possible losers get this money back. So start betting on random matches – without any consideration. Needless to say, as a way of betting happens.

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We examine the successful Betting Systems

Whether punters are betting according to their instincts or by statistical models, mostly focusing mainly on, what team are betting on. According to one leading mathematician would be (if they want to achieve better results) should attach greater importance to how much soot. Exactly this issue will be addressed in today’s article.

Professional Blackjack player and writer Ed Thorp was very successful in card counting. Some would say that too successful, because in large part because of him to play casino card inserted several packages and began generally against such players lead a hard war.

Five betting systems after 500 bets

Despite his experience, a professional gambler (on this subject written two books), most of the credit for his achievements attributed sázkovému formula that created the mathematician John Kelly. Constantly throughout his life repeated that betting strategy is very important. But what factors make a useful strategy? In order to be able to answer this question, we mapped the success of five betting strategies (systems) in a series of 500 bets.given

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Graf simulation betting systems
The amount of the chart shows a profit of 500 simulated bets wagered with five different betting systems. The basic bet for each system was $ 100 (excluding all-in system, which logically wagered $ 1,000). Each system started with bankroll size $ 1,000 and simulation lasted until the point where with the system is charged with 500 bets – unless in the meantime been reset bankroll. The statistical chances of success bet was 55%.

As you can see, a betting system in the context of our experiment arranged a much higher return than the other four, one system came extremely quickly to zero.

Below we present five systems we’ve tested – you can assign the correct letters?

Strategy # 1 – Every time we are betting everything

We rely on each bet entire bankroll. The advantage of the high and fast profits. The big disadvantage is that once you lose a bet, you are completely out of the game.

Strategy # 2 – Fixed size bets

At every opportunity we bet betting the same amount of money, no matter how much we won. In our example, it was about $ 100th The advantage is the stability. The disadvantage is that the profit is at a relatively slow. More information about this system, see the article Stable stakes – Flat betting.

Strategy # 3 – Martingale

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After each bet is lost doubling the size of our bets, we (assuming that our next bet will be successful) cover losses and still made a profit. This sportsbook betting strategy behind compared to a fixed sum provides significantly greater demands on the bankroll. Just a few unsuccessful bets in a row and find that you cover loss, you bet exorbitant sums.

And the worst part? That success always earn only the original bet size. Feel free so you can risk $ 3600 needed to do to win $ 100th More information about this system can be found in the paper we investigate the Martingale betting system.

Strategy # 4 – Fibonacci

With this strategy after each defeat proceed in the so-called. Fibonacci series – about the system to learn more about in the article investigate the Fibonacci betting system. The method has similar disadvantages as the Martingale bankroll nevertheless demands are lower, since the progression rises more slowly.

Strategy # 5 – We rely% of the bankroll by our edge

Under this strategy, we bet a certain percentage of our bankroll by how bout we evaluate – namely, depending on what we think we have an advantage. Practically, therefore, is a system of Kelly Criterion. In this system, accelerating progression if they win, and delayed by the time when you can not. Overall, therefore, it is one of robust systems, however it should be noted that this system is able to successfully use it, you need to have some experience with betting.

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